As the 2026 season is about to unfold, let’s take a look at the long ball and see where today’s sluggers stack up in the race to 500 career homers. Thus far 28 men have reached that coveted, rarified air of 500 home runs. The first was the Babe and the last was Miguel Cabrera. Babe reached this milestone, five days before his 34th birthday in his 16th major league season.

He hit number 500 on the 11th of August 1929 in Cleveland off of Willis Hudlin; in the second inning, giving the Yanks a 1-0 lead in a game they would eventually lose 6-5. It was the 7335th plate appearance of his career. He arrived at 500 homers at a rate of one for every 14.67 plate appearance.

Willis Hudlin pitched 16 years in the big leagues, going 158-156 with an ERA of 4.41. His best year was 1929, leading the AL in WAR with a 7.5 mark. He would surrender 5 of Babe’s 714 homers, facing him 79 times throughout their careers. Throughout his entire career, the Babe hit a dinger every 14.89 plate appearances.

“Miggy” hit his 500th August 22, 2021, in Toronto off of Steven Matz. It was 11 days past the 92nd anniversary of The Babe’s 500th circuit clout. It came in the 10,873-plate appearance of his career, arriving at 500 with a homer every 21.74 times he batted.

Steven Matz is currently preparing for his 11th season in the big leagues, his first with the Tampa Bay Rays. Cabrera’s 500th was the only homer Matz surrender to him in the seven times he faced him. He finished his career with 509 homers, blasting one out of the park every 23.08 times he stepped in the box.

Who will be next?

The leader in the clubhouse, so to speak, is this dude. New York Yankee slugger Giancarlo Stanton who is 36 years old and entering his 17th major league season. He has 453 home runs, 47 short of the 500 mark. Since 2019 he’s averaged only 83 games and 336 plate appearances per year. He is a very proficient home run hitter, jacking one every 15.84 times he has stepped in. Last year he hit only 24 homers, however his 162-game average is 43 home runs per. If he is to do it this year, he will need 744 plate appearances, hitting a homer every 16th plate appearance. Stanton’s personal high in plate appearances is 705 in 2018. Look for him to crack 500 late in 2027 or sometime time in early 2028.

Mike Trout is the only other active player with over 400 career dingers. He finished the 2025 campaign with 404, reaching that mark averaging one every 17.83 plate appearances. Playing in his 16th season, Trout will turn 35 in August. He has 7203 career plate appearances which translates to a home run every 17.83 of them. At this rate, he will need 1712 more plate appearances to reach 500. He has averaged 338 plate appearances his last five years and if that rate continues, he’s looking at hitting the mark during the 2030 season. Interestingly his last five years he’s averaged a home run in every 16.56 PA’s. If he can get to 500 plate appearances per season the next three years, and hits one at the rate of 16.56 per homer; at the end of the 2028 season, he will be on the threshold of 500.

There are currently seven active players who sit between 340 and 372 home runs, and they range in age from 33 to 38. They are Paul Goldschmidt 372 (38), Manny Machado 369 (33), Aaron Judge 368 (33), Freddie Freeman 367 (36), Bryce Harper 363 (33), Nolan Arenado 353 (34) and Kyle Schwarber 340 (33). Let’s take a peek.

Paul Goldschmidt is entering his 16th season in which he will turn 39 in September as he winds down towards the end of what has been a very good career. He’s averaged 25 home runs per season at the rate of one for every 23.73 plate appearances and at that rate he will need 3037 plate appearances to reach the 500 plateau. His last five seasons he has garnered 3205 plate appearances and maintained an average of 25 homers per year; however last year he dipped to only 10 dingers. Maintaining his home run production rate appears unlikely but, in all probability, he will crack the 400 barrier; to date only 59 players have reached that number. He needs 28 this year and during his career he has reached that mark seven times. However, his home run production has slipped considerably the last three years 25, 22 and 10. His 10 home runs came in 534 plate appearances; one in every 53.4 times he stepped in. It does not appear that number 400 is in his immediate future.

Manny Machado is three homers behind Goldschmidt. Entering his 15th season, he will turn 34 in July, and he has hit his homers at a rate of one every 22.21 plate appearances. Producing home runs at that rate, he will arrive at 500 sometime toward the end of the 2031 season. He will be 39 years old. He has averaged 26 homers a year throughout his career, however the last five seasons he has averaged 29. A consistent masher, his last five years he has hit: 28, 32, 30, 29 and 27. His past performance tells us he’s a good bet to reach 400 by the end of this season.

Next up is this fella. The most intriguing player on the list. Judge is entering his 11th season, he has 368 homers and he will turn 34 in April. He has hit a home run ever 13.59 times he has stepped into the box. He has averaged 36.8 homers per year. The past five seasons his home runs have come once in every 12.73 plate appearances and at a rate of 49.8 per season! This is what one might call, in a word, Ruthian. If he maintains his career rate of one every 13.59 PA’s, he will need to step in the box 1793 more times. He has averaged 502 plate appearances per year which means he would close in on the 500 mark in July of 2029. Barring an injury, 400 seems a lock by season’s end.

Batting sixth in our lineup of current sluggers is Freddie Freeman! Entering his 17th season, he is 36 years old and will turn 37 in September! Freddie has left the yard 367 times and he’s taken 9363 plate appearances to do it. That is an average of every 25.51 plate appearances. At that rate, he will need 3393 more plate appearances to join the highly exclusive 500 club. He has averaged 585 plate appearances per season. Maintaining that pace, he would reach 500 early in the 2032 season. He would be 42 years old, making him the oldest player to reach 500 homers. Seems unlikely, however he seems assured of joining the 400-homer club. He needs 33 to do it this year a mark he has hit only twice in his career, the last time in 2019. Likely he will get there in 2027.

Bryce Harper rounds out a group of five players who are separated by a total of nine home runs. He enters his 15th season in 2026, and he is 33 years old. He has walloped 363 homers at a rate of one every 21.12 plate appearances. At that rate he will need 2893 plate appearances to crack homer number 500. His past five seasons, he has averaged 556 plate appearances. If he continues that pace moving forward, we can look for Mr. Harper to join the club sometime in the early season of 2032. A long shot for 400 this season, he needs 37 to get there; a mark he’s hit only once in his career.

Nolan Arenado enters his 15th season at 34 years old, and he does it with a new team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, his third. He has hit 353 home runs, tied with Tori Hunter in the 100th spot on the all-time homer list. He has done so by sending a ball into the bleachers once every 21.49 times he has stepped into the batter’s box. At that pace he’s going to need 3129 more plate appearances to reach 500. He has averaged 591 plate appearances his last five years and at that pace he will hit his 500th sometime in the early part of the 2032 season. His 400th seems out of reach this season, needing 47 to get there. His career high is 42, hit in 2015.

Kyle Schwarber enters his 12th season in 2026 having just turned 33 years old. He has 340 career homers and although there are eight active players who have hit more home runs than he; only Aaron Judge has been more proficient at it. Schwarber has accomplished his 340 homers by hitting one every 15.84 times he has come to the plate. Exactly the same rate as Stanton and only behind Judge. However, his past five seasons, he has hit home runs at a faster rate than even Judge, knocking one out of the park every 12.5 plate appearances, just a hair better than Judge. He has averaged 655 plate appearances his past five years and if that continues and he sustains his proficiency rate, he will crack the 500 barrier in late 2029. He and Judge will be racing to 500 in the same summer, hopefully in the midst of great pennant fights. His 400th also seems out of reach this year as he would have to reach the magical, mystical number of 60. However, his past two years have been his best and he hit 56 last year!

Moving down the list a bit a couple of the younger fellas deserve some attention.

Pete Alonso has traded in his orange and blue of the Mets to the orange and black of the Baltimore Orioles. He leaves the Mets as one of the, if not the, most proficient home run hitter in Mets history. He has 264 home runs as he enters his eighth season; he is 30 years old. He’s achieved a home run in every 16.35 plate appearances and if he continues that pace, he will need 3859 plate appearances to reach the coveted 500th homer. He has an average of 694 plate appearances per year and if that continues you can look for him to swat home run number 500 in the summer of 2031. He and Machado could be racing to the mark together in the same season.

Last and certainly not least there is this guy!

The compelling story of Shohei Otani continues to dazzle the game of baseball. Is he a hitter, is he a pitcher, is he both? At the moment he appears to be both, but for now let’s take a look at his quest for 500 homers.

Entering his eighth major league season, he will turn 32 in July. He has 280 homers which he has garnered in 4329 plate appearances: an average of 15.46 per homer. A very proficient home run hitter, he is ranked 202 on the all-time home run list and he needs 220 to reach 500. He has averaged 689 plate appearances per season throughout his career and if he can maintain that clip, it will take 3402 trips into the batter’s box to reach 500. That is just short of five seasons which brings him to the last month of the season in 2030.

Leave a comment and let me know what you think. I welcome your thoughts.